The growth scenario from the May lows zone remains relevant, but the technical details of its implementation may undergo changes.
As we wrote in the previous post, the market has entered the zone of intermediate growth targets indicated by arrows on the daily scale chart. This means that the volatility range of the medium-term trend has been worked out and a pullback is possible, which happened this week.
Monday started with a slight update to the maximum of the past week, and then the market broke through the range of daily volatility and went down to correct the weekly trend, which continues at the current moment.
The technical goal of the correction is the support level at 46206. The boundaries of the confidence interval are indicated by arrows on the hourly scale graph.
The market going down outside the confidence interval zone opens up short-term support at the level of 40768 for testing and will require adjusting the technical details of the growth scenario, but will not cancel its goals.
And the goals remain the same:
– the level of the annual maximum of 64810 is a possible fork in the movement of quotations. However, the chances of stopping at this level are not very high, since general optimism will grow along with the price;
– the technical resistance level of 68058, calculated by volatility for the main trend. Here, the probability of a pullback is higher, since those who bought at the highs of the year will compensate for the drawdown and earn a little, and the memory of former losses will be an incentive to take profits and avoid risks;
– the technical level of long-term resistance is 81400, in the zone of which the probability of another profit-taking and another significant pullback increases.
The main and long-term trends remain upward. According to medium-term and short-term trends, a downward correction is developing in the form of a weekly cycle trend with a target at the level of 46206, with a breakthrough of which it is possible to enter the support zone of 40768.
Speculative buy positions can be opened based on signs of a trend reversal of the weekly cycle in the confidence interval zone and above. When quotes go beyond the lower limit of the confidence interval, we will determine the return to the growth scenario by the parameters of the dynamics of the short-term trend.
Resistance levels: 48801, 50468, 62417, 64810, 71361, 81400.
Support levels: 46497, 46206, 40760, 40026, 37148, 34972, 28702, 22413.
The analysis is based on the indicators of the SWT method. All published materials and graphics reflect the personal opinion of the author and cannot be a call, direct or indirect, to make transactions on the market.